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Andrew Godden

Malaysia Airlines 777-200ER Missing In Flight

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Two things on the BBC this morning:

The comm and tracking were deliberately turned off.

The aircraft was flown in a way that would minimise its radar exposure.

Both point to human intervention by person or persons who was an expert in the 777's systems and was an expert pilot with a specific knowledge of the 777.

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If this proves to be the case and somehow the perpetrators have managed to land the aircraft, one has to wonder what has become of the passengers and cabin crew? Hiding a plane is one thing, trying to restrain 200+ people is not easy. Unless of course the flight crew connected their oxygen masks and then de pressurised the aircraft killing the passengers with oxygen loss. :(

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This mystery becomes darker every day. If it is pilot suicide, why didn't he just pull the trigger just upon himself, rather than killing 238 people?

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This mystery becomes darker every day. If it is pilot suicide, why didn't he just pull the trigger just upon himself, rather than killing 238 people?

 

If that's the scenario, perhaps it's because he didn't want to be known as a suicide so his beneficiaries could collect on his insurance and/or any post-crash settlement from the airline.

 

John

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We live in a society of 24 hours news broadcasts and getting used to immediate answers to questions. 

 

Now the media have encountered a situation that is alien to some of the younger reporters, who just can not get their heads around the wait. 

 

So now they have to resort to speculation and silly theories. 

 

When the eventual answer comes, not one reporter will say sorry to say the pilots family left to morn their loss.

 

Today's news is for sensationalism only not news.  It has only been a couple of weeks when we were inundated with pictures of the snow and floods both in the USA and UK.

 

With reporters trying to afford blame for sensation.  Not a mention these days.

 

The truth will out sometime in the future and when it does, I bet it will be a news item about 4 seconds long.

 

Next week we will be back in the Crimea and Malaya will be down the bottom of the list of news items.

 

Unless of course it was really  a UFO that kidnapped them.......  :whis:

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Apparently there were some 20 or so electronics boffins on board and 4 of them had just been awarded a worldwide patent for an electronic cloaking device ! they all work for the Carlisle group

However the authorities now need to go to about 20 countries to have a look at their military radar records as civil radars require a transponder to see the a/c , if the countries visited keep any records, if they are allowed to see them, they may well come back with a better understanding of where the plane didnt go, I think it is sitting on the Antartic any further offers ?

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Mysteries like this will always bring out speculation, people like to figure things out. Nothing wrong with that at all. I do agree with James though, speculation should not fall in the bailiwick of news reporting.

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The latest theory is that the aircraft has been stashed somewhere and is being prepared for a terrorist attack somewhere, They now think it may have flown on for another 7 hours! Searches are now being made as far up as Kazakhstan! If this scenario is true, then A/ where are the pax? and B/ Just how much explosive could be packed inside that thing? If any terroist group tries to use that aircraft then it would be spotted straight away...or so you'd think. However if they are clever enough to hide it in the first place they are probably clever enough to get it very close to it's target without being seen on radar, (though a low flying MAS B777 would certainly be seen by lots of eyes!) However if it got near enough to say for instance a major city, as soon as it apppeared that countries Air Force would scrambled to bring it down. However lets expand on that. Just supposing the pax are still on the aircraft, would a government still fire on the aircraft, I believe most would, especially if that airliner was being used as a missile. I don't think the aircraft would get far if it were to take off again though, Not with half the world looking for it, so if it did get airborne then the target would have to be fairly close by. The question remains now though, where the hell did it end up? You can bet your life the Chinese would want to avenge its citizens if they were used as hostages. It really is one hell of a strange situation. .......but watch out for the book and movie in a few years time!

 

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I saw a scenario postulated on Pprune, where the aircraft would be used to attack an upcoming meeting of some kind where 58 world leaders will be in the Hague for some kind of nuclear security conference. The writer suggested that the embedded ID codes in the ACARS, transponder, etc. be re-coded to obliterate the known IDs of the MH-370 AC, substituting those of an innocent 777. These IDs are available in the public domain. He described that as just some hexadecimal diddling of something stored in the devices, probably in an EPROM or some other non-volatile media, to transform the ID of the black boxes from that given them in manufacture to that of another aircraft. I think the example used was an Emirates bird. Then, file a flight plan to Brussels, fly the plan pretending to be a legitimate flight and while in the STAR nearing the destination, declare an emergency, turn and descend and fly it into the conference site. I think he said the approach to Brussels could get them within 10 miles of the Hague. That's not much response time.

 

While it's a far fetched scenario, if someone does have the MA 777 airworthy and hidden, there's nothing particularly difficult about that. Possibly the most difficult part is somehow having the flight originate where it's hidden and blend into the role of a legitimate flight. I suspect ATC doesn't often get pop-up clearance requests from 777s.

 

Whoever has done this, if it's more than just a garden variety suicide or hijack/terrorism ending in a crash, are some pretty smart operators who have done their homework pretty well so far. It may well be that the AC is a debris field at the bottom of the Indian Ocean, or in a jungle or on a mountain slope somewhere, but if the plane is hidden and airworthy, it is a potential threat, somewhere, sometime.

 

John

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My thoughts exactly John, If that thing is hidden away then half the world needs to be on alert. I do not think this will end well no matter what the outcome.  :(

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Apparently there were some 20 or so electronics boffins on board and 4 of them had just been awarded a worldwide patent for an electronic cloaking device ! they all work for the Carlisle group

Hi Nigel, what was the source of this please? Cheers k

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Apparently there were some 20 or so electronics boffins on board and 4 of them had just been awarded a worldwide patent for an electronic cloaking device ! they all work for the Carlisle group

Hi Nigel, what was the source of this please? Cheers k

 

 

HI K,

My wife read it to me from the internet I will ask her when she gets back , proably the daily wail :)

Carlisle group, super bad news , super mafia , world domination rules

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We now know the aircraft was flown over mainland Malaysia or Thailand.  Assuming that the passengers were aware that there was something up, why was there no Mobil phone cry for help?  Last time I went on a 777 (February) even cattle class could use their own or the in seat phone at any time after take off and before landing.

 

The only way to be sure of preventing a passenger leak (it happened with 9/11) would be to take out the passengers. How much time can you last if the passenger cabin is unpressurised? how long will the emergency oxygen last with a few hundred hyperventilating passengers gobbling it up?

 

The other thing I would like to know is where is the switch that turns off the ACARS? Would the pilot or copilot be best placed to switch it off?  Could it be done without the other pilot knowing about it? 

 

This mystery just gets deeper and deeper.

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How much time can you last if the passenger cabin is unpressurised? how long will the emergency oxygen last with a few hundred hyperventilating passengers gobbling it up?

 

It was a night flight and many would be asleep. If nothing violent happened there would be little to cause any alarm amongst the pax.

 

Time of useful consciousness at normal cruise altitudes is less than a minute without supplemental oxygen. Not sure how long until brain damage/death occur.

 

I think that the pax oxygen is chemically generated and is supposed to be a 15 minute supply. The design criteria assumes that the crew will initiate a rapid descent if there is a depressurization at altitude. Crew O2 is normally from bottles and, if I recall correctly, must be good for at least 30 minutes. Cabin attendants also have access to bottled O2 which permits them to remain mobile but are fairly short-lived.

 

It would be a simple matter to slowly depressurize the cabin from the cockpit with the crew on oxygen, then re-pressurize the AC after, say 20 minutes. Chances are the pax would all be dead by then.

 

Don't know where the ACARS circuit breaker is located but if the other pilot is complicit or has a knife in his heart, it doesn't much matter. If only one pilot is using the bottled O2, it would last twice as long.

 

John

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no joking; you guys are freaking me out with all the theories here

if i may add my little tiny observation; what is the alt to stay out of radar's detection?

if they were flying this low to avoid detection; wouldn't that contradict the cabin pressure theory (10k ft and up)?

 

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if i may add my little tiny observation; what is the alt to stay out of radar's detection?

if they were flying this low to avoid detection; wouldn't that contradict the cabin pressure theory (10k ft and up)?

 

First you have to understand the difference between PSR (military) and SSR (ATC).

 

ATC uses what is called Secondary Surveillance Radar. It sends a pulse which is "answered" by the transponder in the aircraft. That radar is optimized for detecting, not the aircraft, but the transponder. Transponders also send some additional data, most notably altitude (Mode C). Although ATC-type SSR does have some limited capability to see "skin paint", i.e. radar energy reflected back from the airframe in flight, it is very range-limited. ATC controllers are not accustomed to tracking aircraft without a transponder. They are used to seeing a solid image on their screen with a text tag giving the flight ID, height and speed at least. If a transponder goes away, for all intents and purposes, ATC is blind.

 

PSR, Primary Surveillance Radar, is the kind used by the military. It is designed to detect aircraft by reflected radar energy only. Range depends upon the height of the AC and a number of other factors, including atmospheric conditions, WX, size of target, orientation of target, etc. There are two basic types, pulse and doppler. Pulse works best if the target is flying at right angles to the radar beam; doppler works best for targets moving directly toward or away from the transmitter.

 

Another thing to consider is that this took place in an areas surrounded by third world countries in the wee hours of a Friday night. The A-team was not on the scopes, if they were manned at all. Interpreting PSR data is a lot more difficult than with SSR - no helpful text saying, "Here is MH-370, at FL350 and chugging along at 450 Kts. It's just a blip. Said blip has to be seen and recognized as something of interest and tracked for a while to establish course and speed.

 

It appears that MH-370, after the transponder was turned off, was flown in a way that was intended to maximize its distance from known military radars in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.

 

The heights it flew at, as much as can be gleaned from the satellite pings from the ACARS system, seems to have been between FL450 and FL295, all of which is plenty high to kill the pax by depressurizing the cabin. Once the pax were dealt with, re-pressurizing or descending lower would be a viable option for the hijackers.

 

John

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The news is talking about the firts officer's 'sophisticated flight simulator'. I guess that means that all of us have a sophisticated FS as well :)

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The captain does have a high end flight simulator. He's also a political activist, a supporter of a radical Islamic opposition politician and was in the courtroom the day of the flight when his hero was convicted of sodomy and sentenced to five years in prison. At least one account has him going directly to the airport from the courtroom. By the way, his wife and children moved out of his house the day before the flight.

 

There's plenty of reason to wonder if the captain isn't behind this and his flight simulator is the least of them.

 

John

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I found this interesting You Tube post:-

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezRwRsCmmTc

 

The circuit breakers could be removed with out the pilots knowing it as they are behind him.

The ACARS system is disabled from the FMS easy to do by either of the crew.

The third system to be disabled was under the floor and could be disabled bu hatch access.

 

This video states that this would need two people to do this, one to fly the plane and one to use the hatch.  I think they have forgotten about auto pilot!

 

This last system could not be shut off with out the passengers knowledge, but was disabled some time after the other other two, giving time for the perpetrator to disable the passengers. 

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John G,

I'm not familiar with the B777 electrical systems, but the B747-200 had a huge number of circuit breakers which could be used to disable any of its electrical/electronic devices. Whilst most of these were on the flight engineer's panel (which the 777 does not have), some were scattered around the flight deck in some very obscure places and not easily visible.

Probably not relevant here, but it only takes seconds for a rogue pilot to remove any warning/malfunction indicator lights from any of the aircraft switches - how often would the flight crew do a lamp test during a flight? Probably never.

Ray.

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That was floated around on Pprune and the guys there felt it was impractical to have been able to fly close enough formation on a second plane to fool Indian military radar, which is supposedly pretty good. Not sure. It makes as much sense as anything else. If true, it is another indication that this whole thing was pretty well planned out.

 

John

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i think the wife knows the answer to all this;

there has to be a reason why she got up and left the day before all this went down

 

if this is turns out to be what we all fear the most; she is as guilty as he is if not more!

 

i believe the answer or some big clues also hiding inside that sim box of his

 

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I can't say he is or isn't guilty of anything. He's not the first airline pilot who enjoyed flying so much he spent some of his money for a simulator setup and he's certainly not the first airline pilot whose wife left him. I think in this situation, everyone and everything connected to that flight has to be considered suspect, but there's not an awful lot in the way of smoking guns that proves one theory over another just yet.

 

I've believed for about a week now that this was a criminal act, not some kind of accident or casualty because the accident scenarios that fit with the known elements just become terribly convoluted and improbable. An accident scenario is not impossible but it seems like a real stretch that something happened that took out this and that device but still left the plane able to fly for hours longer and at least give the appearance of having been under some kind of human control, but not make any attempt to find an airport and make an immediate landing.

 

The captain needs to be looked at hard; so does the First Officer and a flight engineer travelling as a pax, the two guys with stolen passports and most everyone else aboard.

 

John

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if this was a planned mission, the sim would played a major part in this

 

the coincidences in this case are off the charts of probability

every incident you've stated is not out of normal, by itself

but all of them put together = something else

to me it sounds like someone blown a gasket

 

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